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When outgoing US President Joe Biden last week explained that the Israel-Hamas deal was broadly identical to the one he announced last May, he thought he was promoting his own role. In fact, it was a savage indictment of his own failure — a confession, even.
What Biden was confirming was that it was his abject refusal to put any pressure on the Israeli government that meant a further seven months were needed to get this deal over the line. More than 10,000 Palestinians were slaughtered in that time. The ethnic cleansing in northern Gaza could have been avoided. Biden was reaffirming his complicity, something he yet again reinforced when he admitted on camera that he told Netanyahu back in October 2023 that “you can’t be carpet-bombing these communities.” Biden had no qualms in being the main weapons supplier to a state that was carpet-bombing civilians.
In contrast, Donald Trump showed that, just by rattling the Israeli cage ahead of his return to the White House, Netanyahu had no choice but to cave in. Trump made it clear there had to be a deal by the time of his inauguration on Monday. Many thought this was aimed at Hamas, but it was at Netanyahu too. Trump did not unveil some great act of diplomatic wizardry, but he put his foot down and Netanyahu had to respect his wishes. What few understand is that Biden is emotionally and by conviction pro-Israel, while Trump is pro-Israel only insofar as it overlaps with his own interests.
Trump’s ultimatum was one reason a deal was reached. The war has been costly to Israel, in terms of lives, the damage to its economy and its global reputation. The public pressure to get the remaining hostages out of Gaza was also getting to Netanyahu.
But this is not a ceasefire deal. It is, more accurately, a hostage exchange with the possibility of a temporary pause. The areas of disagreement remain larger than those on which there is agreement, not least on who gets to govern Gaza in the medium term.
Yet, from small beginnings, more may follow. The sheer wave of relief sweeping over the Palestinians as Israel stops its bombing and killing is intense. Israelis and Palestinians alike have been overjoyed to be reunited with their loved ones.
This will create its own momentum. Political leaders may be wary of going against the tide of public opinion and those publics clearly want an end to all this horror. Only the most extreme really want to dive down the hellhole of this once again, but sadly they do exist. Spoilers will try to nix this nascent deal.
This is not a ceasefire deal. It is, more accurately, a hostage exchange with the possibility of a temporary pause
Chris Doyle
The first phase may be the easy one. In it, 33 Israeli hostages will be released, as well as about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. This will be accompanied by a pause in the hostilities. Stages two and three are when the spoilers will come out to play. Netanyahu is rumored to have given commitments that Israel will resume military operations at this stage. This is in line with his own previous statements.
But for the first time in 15 months, hope has made an appearance. This has to be welcomed and embraced.
The challenges are immense. It will require one of the greatest ever international efforts to render Gaza inhabitable. The UN estimates there are 40 million tonnes of rubble in Gaza and these rubble mountains are infested with unexploded ordnance.
How will serious levels of humanitarian aid get into Gaza? Six hundred trucks a day, as stipulated under the deal, will not be enough given the colossal need. The donor community has to read the riot act to Israel and pressure it to cancel its appalling legislation that will ban UNRWA’s operations. You cannot address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza without what is not just the largest humanitarian provider, but also the largest health and education service provider.
Yet the political challenges are just as tough. Who will rule Gaza? Hamas is not going to just give up what control it has. Israel will not accept any role for the group. Netanyahu hates the idea of the Palestinian Authority taking over, as that would bring Palestinian statehood closer again. Reuniting the West Bank and Gaza would be a strategic disaster for the Israeli right.
Accountability still matters, above all, to make sure these atrocities never happen again. There should be a proper international investigation, in addition to those being conducted by the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.
The real work has to start now. Many international actors, including the US, can never atone for their complicity in the genocide in Gaza, but they can help by ensuring that this process not only leads to a proper ceasefire, but also a meaningful end product — a full and final peace between these peoples. If there is any serious intent to get such a peace, the US will need to roll back the Israeli settlement project in the West Bank and bury all plans for annexation. If Trump does that, perhaps he will deserve a Nobel Peace Prize.
• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech